Primarily, those that fall into this bucket of belief cite the stock market, remarking that there are signs that the S&P 500 and other leading indices are reading to turn over. For instance, Scott Minerd, CIO of financial services and investment firm Guggenheim Investments, remarked in a note published early this month:
“We need to see the other shoe drop. When the markets start to see some of the data on unemployment rising and economic growth and corporate earnings contracting, there will be another level of panic in the market.”
But, more and more evidence continues to mount that the crypto market has decisively bottomed.
Crypto’s March Capitulation Proves the Bottom Is In: Analysts
Crypto trader Wolf recently shared the below image, showing that the inverse of Bitcoin’s chart shows a clear sign that the bottom is in.
He found that you can connect nearly all of Bitcoin’s macro bottoms over the past years but the drop to $3,100 in December on the logarithmic chart. Per him, this confirms “one more time that the crypto bottom is in,” remarking how the trendline matches the chart “almost perfectly.”
It isn’t only this. Per previous reports from NewsBTC, according to Mohit Sorout — partner at crypto exchange Bitazu Capital — the spike in volumes seen during the March crash was similar to that seen during every single macro top and bottom for the asset over the past 2.5 years.
Furthermore, Glassnode observed that one of its proprietary indicators, which tracks the profitability of short-term BTC holders, is on the verge of entering a territory that has historically coincided with the end of bear trends and the start of full-blown bull markets.
Maybe the Bottom Is In, But Don’t Count Out a Retest
It’s important not to count out a retest of the $3,000 though.
In the April edition of “Crypto Trader’s Digest,” BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggested that despite the recent performance, he could see Bitcoin retest $3,000, calling the chance this happens “absolutely [likely …] if the S&P 500 rolls over and tests 2,000.”
Chris Burniske followed suit, with the Placeholder Capital partner explaining that if we see another “sell everything” moment in the global markets, “Bitcoin will not be spared,” then “there are any number of lows in the $5000s, $4000s and $3000s that BTC could reach.”
Importantly, though, gold bottomed prior to stocks during the 2008 Great Recession, suggesting the same could happen this time around, but with gold and BTC leading the pack if the cryptocurrency lives up to the moniker of “digital gold.”
Photo by Anders Jildén on Unsplash