From yesterday things haven’t changed much for the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap but we have seen a slight increase as the evaluation came up from $132B at the yesterday’s open to $134,5B at its highest point today.

Bitcoin Price

On the global chart, we can see that the evaluation came up to the lower resistance level from the resistance zone above but the interaction still hasn’t occurred. The horizontal sideways correction level prior to the current increase has been crossed to the upside but as the evaluation is making smaller and smaller moves the structure looks unstable which is why we could see a rejection today which will propel the evaluation in a downward trajectory.

The market is in mixed colors with an insignificant percentage of change in the last 24 hours among top 100 coins. Out of those who are in green, the biggest gainers are ABBC coin with an increase of 39.74% Steem 15.81% and Icon 12.88%.

Bitcoin market dominance has been decreasing and is currently sitting at 51.5% level coming down from 51.8% on yesterday’s high.

Bitcoin BTC/USD

From yesterday’s low at $3913 the price of Bitcoin came up by 2% at first to the $3994.4 level which is where the horizontal resistance point is, and since the price encountered resistance there is pulled back slightly and is currently sitting at $3970.

Looking at the 15-min chart you can see that the price action has formed an ascending channel/ wedge similarly to what can be seen on the global chart as the Bitcoin’s market share is still over half of the market’s evaluation.

In yesterday’s post, I’ve said that the interaction with the horizontal resistance level at $3994.4 was expected as the 5th wave should develop, but since the price action formed a channel we are likely going to see the 5th wave starting today. If this is true, then the 5th wave is set to go higher above the mentioned resistance in which case we can see it ending around the next minor horizontal level at $4068 which would be resistance line for the upper horizontal range out of which the $3994.4. a level is the support line.

Zooming out on to the hourly chart you can see that the price action prior to the initial drop we saw last Monday increased impulsively from the similar ascending wedge which is why I believe we are to see a similar scenario this time as well. This would be the second structure after the five-wave impulse ended which I believe was the end of the Intermediate Y wave.

The price is set to go higher from here but not further than the prior high as there would most likely be the third correctional structure after this increase should start and will in that way probably be the second wave X from the mentioned Intermediate WXY correction as it got prolonged by two more waves.

If this is true then the projected scenario would be like on the chart below which is why it either way after this upswing ends I would be expecting a retracement down to some of the support levels below it, but it is still unclear where it could be as the price still hasn’t ended its five-wave move to the upside, but most likely we are going to see a retest of the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $3936.8 before continuing to go for another increase which would be the end of the three-wave correction to the upside, much like we have seen after the first recovery wave ended on 24th of December last year.

The increase after the retracement could end as a retest of the falling wedge resistance inside who’s territory the price entered on the previous upswing but hasn’t retested the level.

The intersection between the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the mentioned descending trendline which is the resistance from the falling wedge could be an area of interest and if the price manages to come up there it would encounter strong resistance needed in order for the next wave to the downside to start.

Market sentiment

Bitcoin’s hourly chart technical are signaling a buy.

Pivot points

S3 2943.1
S2 3464.3
S1 3688.7
P 3985
R1 4209.9
R2 4506.7
R3 5027.9

Conclusion

As the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market cap formed an ascending channel which resembles the one seen on the chart of Bitcoin we are seeing first signs of weakness as the price is struggling to keep up its bullish momentum. As this happened when the price was previously on the way up, increasing impulsively we could see a similar pattern develop which means that the price of Bitcoin is headed for one more increase.

This increase is expected to end at $4068 at max as there is another resistance point at those levels after which if my count is correct we are to see a small retracement to around $3936 followed by another increase to the upside potentially reaching the ultimate resistance points at around $4130 where the falling wedge resistance from the start of the bear market is intersecting the 0.786 Fibonacci level.

After this minor increase ends which would be a three-wave correction to the upside according to my count, we are going to see another wave to the downside start developing which is set to push the price of Bitcoin and the evaluation of the cryptocurrency market significantly lower to around $3600 level, but we are still going to closely monitor the price action and readjust the projection accordingly as the price targets depend on the ending point of the current upswing.

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